New study finds Europe’s digital dependence rises as US and China pull ahead

Drawing on a new Digital Dependence Index covering 51 countries over 14 years, the policy study identifies four strategic pathways to strengthen Europe’s digital resilience.

Europe became more dependent on digital technologies from outside its borders between 2010 and 2023, despite successive initiatives intended to strengthen its technological autonomy, a new policy study from the Vodafone Institute and the University of Bonn has found.

“Getting Strategic Priorities Right – Towards a Framework for Reducing Digital Dependencies” is the culmination of a one-year collaboration between the Vodafone Institute and the Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies (CASSIS) of the University of Bonn.

The study draws on a new Digital Dependence Index, which compares 51 countries, including 16 European countries, across four dimensions: trade in ICT goods, trade in ICT services, digital platforms and ICT patents.

The Index shows that Europe’s overall digital dependence increased by approximately 0.5 percentage points between 2010 and 2023. China reduced its dependence by nearly 11 percentage points and the United States by 6 percentage points, while the BRICS countries collectively recorded a reduction of around 1 percentage point.

European countries consistently demonstrated moderate to high levels of digital dependence over the period. Their greatest vulnerability was in digital platforms, where European countries were almost completely reliant on foreign providers.

Based on this evidence, the study sets out four evidence-based policy pathways for Europe to reduce its digital dependencies and strengthen its resilience. The pathways carry different costs, risks and levels of ambition. They are not mutually exclusive, and the study finds that some could be pursued in combination:

• Build indispensable supply-chain positions: strengthen Europe’s existing industrial and technological capabilities so that other countries increasingly depend on critical European expertise and production.
• Create a European technological power: invest at scale in a competitive European digital stack, including platforms, infrastructure, patents and continental technology companies.
• Reduce the most serious vulnerabilities: identify and address critical technological chokepoints and potential “kill switches”, particularly where they affect security and essential state functions.
• Diversify Europe’s partnerships: reduce excessive reliance on a small number of foreign suppliers by expanding European capabilities and establishing new international technology partnerships.

Maximilian Mayer, Professor for International Relations and Global Politics of Technology at the University of Bonn said: “Although European governments have implemented various policies and measures to foster digital sovereignty, their efforts have not been ambitious enough. One of the key problems is clearly the lack of strategic priorities for increasing digital capabilities and addressing digital dependencies.”

Between 2010 and 2023, the largest European percentage point increases were recorded in Finland (13.7), Sweden (7.2), Norway (6.4), Estonia (3.9), France (3.1), and Austria (2.8).

The largest European percentage point decreases were recorded in Serbia (−17.3), Czechia (−5.5), Poland (−4.2), and the United Kingdom (−3.5).

Europe also remained highly dependent on foreign ICT patents, limiting its ability to capture the economic and strategic benefits of technological innovation and underlining the importance of quick action.

The research shows that European countries do not share a single dependence profile. Most sit within either a “post-industrial” group, including Germany, France, Italy and the UK, or a “supply chain node” group that includes Czechia, Estonia and Poland.

These clusters possess different capabilities and vulnerabilities, meaning a uniform policy imposed across Europe is unlikely to deliver the best results.

The study also demonstrates that national trajectories can change. Serbia reduced its overall dependence substantially between 2010 and 2023, while Finland recorded the largest increase among the European countries assessed. The drivers also varied with France and Germany showing greater dependence on foreign ICT services that coincided with an increase in overall dependence.

The study recommends that European policymakers should agree shared strategic priorities as soon as possible. Furthermore, policymakers should subsequently coordinate regulation, innovation, investment and procurement across countries, sequencing short-, medium- and long-term measures to achieve Europe’s priorities.

Carefully selecting international technology partnerships and developing a long-term public narrative around the benefits of greater digital resilience are also viewed as critical for addressing Europe’s digital dependencies.

Alongside the study, an interactive Digital Dependence Index website allows policymakers, researchers, journalists, businesses and the public to compare countries and regions, examine changes over time and explore the underlying data. It also includes an AI-supported tool designed to help users navigate the dataset and its policy context.