2009 financial year
|Adjusted operating profit
|Free cash flow
|2009 outlook(2)(3)||39.8 to 40.7||11.0 to 11.5||5.3 to 5.8||5.1 to 5.6(4)|
|(1)||The amount for the 2008 financial year includes £0.4 billion benefit from deferred payments for capital expenditure but is stated after £0.7 billion of tax payments, including associated interest, in respect of a number of long standing tax issues.|
|(2)||Includes assumption of average foreign exchange rates for the 2009 financial year of approximately £1:€1.30 (2008: 1.42) and £1:US$1.96 (2008: 2.01). A substantial majority of the Group’s revenue, adjusted operating profit, capitalised fixed asset additions and free cash flow is denominated in currencies other than sterling, the Group’s reporting currency. A 1% change in the euro to sterling exchange rate would impact revenue by approximately £250 million and adjusted operating profit by approximately £70 million.|
|(3)||The outlook does not include the impact of a change in the Group’s effective interest in ‘Neuf Cegetel’.|
|(4)||Excludes spectrum and licence payments, but includes estimated payments in respect of long standing tax issues.|
The outlook ranges reflect the Group’s assumptions for average foreign exchange rates for the 2009 financial year. In respect of the euro to sterling exchange rate, this represents an approximate 10% change to the 2008 financial year, resulting in favourable year on year increases in revenue, adjusted operating profit and free cash flow and adverse changes in capitalised fixed asset additions.
Operating conditions are expected to continue to be challenging in Europe given the current economic environment and ongoing pricing and regulatory pressures but with continued positive trends in messaging and data revenue and voice usage growth. Increasing market penetration is expected to continue to result in overall strong growth for the EMAPA region. The Group considers that its geographically diverse portfolio should provide some resilience in the current economic environment.
Revenue is expected to be in the range of £39.8 billion to £40.7 billion. The Group continues to drive revenue growth, particularly in respect of its total communications strategy for data and fixed broadband services and in emerging markets. Revenue includes the first full year post acquisition of Vodafone Essar in India and the Tele2 businesses in Italy and Spain.
Adjusted operating profit is expected to be in the range of £11.0 billion to £11.5 billion.The Group margin is expected to decline by a similar amount as in the 2008 financial year but with a greater impact from lower margin fixed broadband services. Verizon Wireless, the Group’s US associate, is expected to continue to perform strongly.
Total depreciation and amortisation charges are anticipated to be around £6.5 billion to £6.6 billion, higher than the 2008 financial year, primarily as a result of the ongoing investment in capital expenditure in India and the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates.
The Group expects capitalised fixed asset additions to be in the range of £5.3 billion to £5.8 billion, including an increase in investment in India. Capitalised fixed asset additions are anticipated to be around 10% of revenue for the total of the Europe region and common functions, with continued investment in growth.
Free cash flow is expected to be in the range of £5.1 billion to £5.6 billion, excluding spectrum and licence payments. This is after taking into account £0.3 billion from payments for capital expenditure deferred from the 2008 financial year.
The Group will invest £0.2 billion in Qatar in respect of the second mobile licence won in December 2007. During the 2009 financial year Vodafone Qatar is expected to pay £1.0 billion for the licence with the balance of the funding being provided by the other shareholders in Vodafone Qatar.
The Group continues to make significant cash payments for tax and associated interest in respect of long standing tax issues. The Group does not expect resolution of the application of the UK Controlled Foreign Company legislation to the Group in the near term.
The adjusted effective tax rate percentage is expected to be in the high 20s for the 2009 financial year, with the Group targeting the high 20s in the medium term.